机器人汽车能否缓解交通阻塞？

Self-driving cars are expected to usher in a new era of mobility, safety and convenience. The problem, say transportation researchers, is that people will use them too much.

[2] Experts foresee robot cars chauffeuring2chauffeur 开车运送，为别人当汽车司机。children to school, dance class and baseball practice. The disabled and elderly will have new mobility. Commuters will be able to work, sleep,eat or watch movies on the way to the office. People may stay home more because they can send their cars to do things like pick up groceries they’ve ordered online.

[3] Researchers believe the number of miles driven will skyrocket3skyrocket 突升，猛涨。. It’s less certain whether that will mean a corresponding surge4surge 大量。in traffic congestion,but it’s a clear possibility.

无人驾驶汽车有望引领一个兼具流动性、安全性和便利性的新时代。交通研究人员表示，问题在于，人们将会过度使用它们。

[2]专家预测，机器人汽车可以送孩子们上学、上舞蹈课、去练习棒球。残疾人和老人将会有新的移动方式。通勤者能在去办公室的路上工作、睡觉、吃东西或者看电影。人们待在家里的时间可能会变长，因为他们可以让车去做很多事情，例如去取在网上订购的物品。

[3]研究人员认为，驾车出行的英里数将会急剧增加。这是否意味着交通堵塞会相应加剧还不太确定，但这种可能性很明显。

[4] Gary Silberg, an auto industry expert at accounting firm KPMG, compares it to the introduction of smart phones. “It will be indispensable to your life,” he said. “It will be all sorts of things we can’t even think of today.”

[5] Based on focus group5focus group 焦点小组（选自各阶层，讨论某专项问题；所得信息常为市场研究者或某政党所用）。in Atlanta,Denver and Chicago, KPMG predicts autonomous “mobility-on-demand”services—think Uber and Lyft without a driver—will result in double-digit6double-digit 两位数的。increases in travel by people in two age groups: those over 65, and those 16 to 24.

[6] Vehicles traveled a record 3.1 trillion miles in the U.S. last year. Increased trips in autonomous cars by those two age groups would boost miles traveled by an additional 2 trillion miles annually by 2050, KPMG calculated. If self-driving cars without passengers start running errands7run errands 跑腿儿；处理杂事。, the increase could be double that.

[7] And if people in their middle years, when driving is at its peak, also increase their travel, that yearly total could reach 8 trillion miles. “This could be massive,” Silberg said.

[8] Driverless cars are expected to make travel both safer and human error responsible for 90 percent of traffic accidents, they’re expected to sharply reduce accidents,driving down the cost of insurance and repairs.

[4]毕马威会计事务所的汽车行业专家加里·西尔伯格将机器人汽车的推出与智能手机的问世相提并论。他说：“机器人汽车将成为人类生活中不可或缺的东西。它会带来我们今天无法想象的各种变化。”

[5]根据亚特兰大、丹佛和芝加哥等地焦点小组的调查，毕马威预测，“按需移动”的自动驾驶服务（想象一下没有司机的优步和来福车）将使两个年龄段的出行人数呈两位数增加：65岁以上和16—24岁人群。

[6]去年，美国的汽车行驶里程达到了创纪录的3.1 万亿英里。据毕马威计算，到2050 年，这两个年龄段的自动驾驶汽车出行里程每年将会再增加2万亿英里。如果没有乘客的无人驾驶汽车开始“跑腿”，那么这种增长可能会翻一倍。

[7]中年人驾车出行最多，如果他们也增加出行，那么年汽车出行总里程可达8万亿英里。“这是非常庞大的数字。”西尔伯格说。

[8]无人驾驶汽车将使出行更加安全，同时减少出行成本。由于90%的交通事故都是人为造成，无人驾驶汽车有望大幅减少交通事故，由此降低保险和维修成本。

[9] But the biggest cost of car travel is drivers’ time, said Don MacKenzie,a University of Washington transportation researcher. That cost comes down dramatically when people can use their travel time productively on other tasks.

[10] A study by MacKenzie and other researchers published in the journal Transportation Research: Part A estimates that the vehicles can cut the cost of travel by as much as 80 percent. That in turn drives up miles traveled by 60 percent.

[11] There’s a fork ahead in this driverless road, says a report by Lauren Isaac, manager of sustainable transportation at WSP/Parsons Brinckerhoff,that envisions8either utopia9or a nightmare.

[12] In the best case, congestion is reduced because driverless cars and trucks are safer and can travel faster with reduced space between them. Highway lanes can be narrower because vehicles won’t need as much margin10for will be fewer accidents to tie up traffic. But those advantages will be limited as long as driverless cars share roads with conventional cars, likely for decades.

文章来源：《汽车实用技术》 网址: http://www.qcsyjs.cn/qikandaodu/2021/0119/715.html